Last week I started my newsletter talking about the glorious weather we were having in Toronto (referred to as an Indian summer) and lamenting the fact that climate change is real.
Today, I sit writing this newsletter in the dark as Southern Ontario experiences record high wind speeds in a storm which has seen winds in excess of 100 km/h. This has caused power outages and damaged infrastructure, which in turn meant that I was without power for several hours.
It is my first power outage in over a year and a half since being here and it is amazing how quickly we adjust. I was noticeably irate but also cognizant of the fact that when I was in South Africa, that such outages are unbearably frequent and often for longer. The reasons for the power outages are quite different here and with Canada being one of the most energy secure nations on earth, reasons like inclement weather are even more disturbing.
I will say it again, Climate change is REAL! If left unchecked, it will have devastating effects ranging from more volatility in weather patterns to outright failure of some states where energy security goes hand in hand with food and water security. I will likely be writing about this in more detail in future.
Exciting news! – Moe-Knows launches podcast in collaboration with ‘The Finance Ghost’.
My piece last week on the fair value of the rand, amid a strong rally in EM FX was timeous. The rand is strong but this week, we will watch event risk in the form of a SARB MPC (will they cut or hold?) and Moody’s review to cap the week off on Friday.
The piece on the rand was also the ideal place to launch our inaugural podcast. Moe-Knows in collaboration with my good friend, ‘The Finance Ghost’, has just launched:
‘Magic Markets’ – A weekly podcast (+- 20 min long) where we discuss macroeconomics, market trends covering both emerging and global markets.
‘The Finance Ghost’ is a South African Investment Banker with over 10 years of experience. As a successful business strategist and entrepreneur, he introduces a unique and fresh perspective on business. Together we unpack and discuss issues relevant to investors share our respective insights.
The first episode is live. Give it a listen here. Let us know your thoughts.
It will be on all the podcast platforms later this week, but it’s already on Spotify.
What will we be watching this week:
China joined the list of countries acknowledging Joe Biden’s election win even though President Donald Trump has not officially conceded. The China-US interplay is interesting and China in and of itself is a topic which will fill many blog posts.
I will be doing a series of posts on China, including detail from my last trip there and what insights that yielded for my bigger macro view on what is the world’s largest economy. The first one will be posted later this week.
I will also be launching some video content soon. Make sure you are subscribed to my newsletter and blog to ensure you receive the content as it is posted.
The world is all about a vaccine right now. Last week it was all Pfizer and now more talk from other players. Canada is hedging its bets and has signed contracts not only with Pfizer and BioNTech but it has also signed six other contracts: Moderna, Sanofi and GlaxoSmithKline, Johnson & Johnson, Novavax, AstraZeneca and Medicago.
Like everyone else out there, we all just want COVID gone so we can get back some semblance of ‘normal’ life. This uncertainty will linger but if there is hope, markets will run on it, even if its just vapors for now.
The problem is that even if we get a vaccine, unless we have a sufficiently large portion of the global population take the vaccine, we are unlikely to get this thing under control. However, what is disturbing is that fewer people are saying they would take a vaccine if developed. Check out the story from the World Economic Forum here.
Brexit – deadline is on Tuesday… again.
This is like Groundhog Day! Again, and again. Its been four years (and 3 prime ministers) since the referendum. GBPUSD has been from around $1.53 down to $1.16 and now $1.32. Who said you needed to trade emerging markets to see this kind of action (or political inaction)!
We had singles day last week, this week we watch US retail sales on Tuesday ahead of what will be an interesting Black Friday 27 Nov (Good timing, my birthday is Nov 26th in case anyone was feeling generous). 😊
Nvidia results – A company I have liked for some time. The stock is up over 150% this year (yes that’s insane!) Results out on Wednesday and the market will be watching in anticipation to see if they can continue the momentum. There is a lot of expectation priced in here but hey, no one told Tech stocks that 2020 was happening.
Year to Date:
To wrap up, we also spoke about asset allocation in the piece here, so I thought it is worthwhile showing what asset classes have done for the YTD so far.
So, don’t sit in the dark. When the power goes out, read, listen and watch on Moe-Knows.com to stay enlightened!
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